The Center for Strategic and International Studies has studied the possible war scenarios between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, and has concluded that the U.S. would win. But it would be very costly.

“conflict scenarios were developed from historical data and operations research that modeled a Chinese invasion in 2026. Simulators gathered information from the Normandy invasion in World War II and amphibious warfare campaigns by U.S. Marines in Okinawa and the British-Argentine conflict over the Falkland Islands”

“the Chinese military attack “quickly founders,” the report said. Intervention by U.S. submarines, bombers and fighter bombers, backed by forces from the Japan Self-Defense Forces, quickly cripple” the Chinese amphibious force…the losses on both sides would be extraordinary, with Japan and the U.S. losing nearly 450 combat aircraft and 40 ships. China would lose 155 combat aircraft and nearly 140 ships.”

“Eric Heginbotham, a research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a participant in the study, said U.S. casualties would be similar to those in World War II with around 10,000 casualties. U.S. bases on the U.S. island of Guam also would be hit by Chinese missiles and destroyed in the first hours of a war. In all but five of the war simulations, China attacked U.S. bases in Japan, Mr. Heginbotham said.”

Our military leaders are saying that this may happen before 2030.

U.S. defeats China in simulated war over Taiwan, but costs are high, says new study on risks