This is not the assessment you are going to see on any mainstream media in America. We at TUM have some more accurate and less rosy sources of information.
Here is the update:
- Putin has everything he wants from Ukraine, He wanted the land bridge to Crimea to support his Navy base there and to be able to route oil and gas pipelines to the port for shipment. He has that.
- The Russian military is executing an “encirclement” of the Ukrainian army. The goal is to cut their logistics so they run out of ammunition and food and therefore have to surrender.
- Once the Ukrainian army is neutralized, Putin will negotiate with Zelenskyy for the return of everything that Putin doesn’t want in exchange for the West relieving sanctions.
- There are three new countries that constitute the land bridge that Putin wants. They have voted for their own sovereignty (no word on validity, but a vote is a vote). It will be tough to Ukraine to pull them back in if they truly want independence.
- Biden’s sanctions have had nowhere near the effect anticipated. Putin has been planning this war for 10 years, and has prepared his financial system to take sanctions into account.
- Russia still has not cut off gas and oil to Europe which gets over 40% of its energy through Russia. This threat is looming and is part of the reason Europe has not gone “all in” in supporting Ukraine. In other words, Europe is running scared, since an interruption of this magnitude would shut down whole industries.
Sorry if this is not what you wanted to hear. Sure, Russian advanced have been in fits and starts, and sure, Ukrainian forces have fought bravely and have had their moments. But Putin knows that is he loses he is done – a jail cell or a grave. He doesn’t care what it costs, he will win. Biden is clueless.